Bitcoin prices rose sharply on Monday despite a downward trend in the number of active addresses. At one point, the cryptocurrency hit the $24,200 level. It appears that this is not because of the crypto market, but rather an external reason behind the price increase. Interestingly, there is hardly any upward trend in the number of active Bitcoin wallets.

The Bitcoin active wallet is in a downward trend

The on-chain numbers indicate that the number of active addresses holding BTC is still low. Not only that, but active wallets are also on the decline, according to Crypto Quant. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency futures market is currently showing positive momentum. But it is uncertain how long this momentum will last.

Crypto prices are expected to rise

Cryptocurrency prices are rising as new contracts are opened in the futures market. Short-term investors in cryptocurrencies are taking positions in the futures market, raising prices. Buying signals in crypto futures can be expected price increases.

"Expectations of an improvement in macro sentiment have led short-term bettors to take positions in the futures market (open interest), betting on momentum gains that could guide prices higher."

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading just below $24,000. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $23,968, up about 3% in the past 24 hours. However, volatility is highly likely as macroeconomic events this week are likely to have an impact. The most important U.S. inflation data will be released on Wednesday.

Moreover, short-term speculation in futures markets is susceptible to rapid turnover. These signals could bend cryptocurrency prices in either way in the near future. "Directional bets at this point are risky on the cusp of important macro data and can change direction quickly in the short term, so being able to manage risk or allocation at this point is very important."

On the other hand, the August bitcoin price forecast is positive. According to community forecasts, BTC could end the month above $28,000. Whether BTC will suffer a price correction or gain positive momentum remains to be seen.

Focusing on the macro environment won't hurt BTC investors

Focusing on the macro environment will not hurt BTC investors, as there is now no doubt about the impact of the macro environment on Bitcoin prices. At the start of the year, stock-market correlations hit new highs; The cryptocurrency market has not yet begun to separate from it. Given this, there are several reasons why bitcoin investors would be wise to react appropriately and watch the stock market to predict where bitcoin prices are likely to go.

Institutional adoption has been intense over the past few years and these major players have started to enter the market. While this has many benefits for Bitcoin, such as greater demand, it also inadvertently links Bitcoin's price to the stock market because of the well-known players there.

As a result, Bitcoin developments are now more closely linked to stock market trends. This suggests that whatever financial problems are having an impact on institutional investors in the stock market is having an impact on bitcoin. So bitcoin is now more likely to follow the stock market down if it does. To make matters worse, Bitcoin is actually more volatile compared to stocks, causing prices to move even more.

So as recently observed, if institutional investors are forced to sell their shares, money will pour into Bitcoin. So when forced selling happens in the stock market, it happens in the cryptocurrency market. As a result, a fall in the stock market will also cause Bitcoin prices to fall.

Financial markets have suffered huge losses since the start of 2022, and the situation has gotten worse as inflation has risen. To solve the problem, the Fed had to develop a new strategy, causing interest rates to rise sharply. One of the main factors driving bitcoin's decline is rising interest rates. This is why focusing on the macro environment will not hurt BTC investors, as being aware of it will only help when trying to predict the future of Bitcoin.