Encryption industry after 10 years development has accumulated a large number of data on the chain, through induction and graphical processing these data formed a variety of encryption indicators, the indicators on the one hand, recorded the vicissitudes of encryption industry over the past ten years, on the other hand can also describe encryption market trends, provide theory basis for practitioners and anticipation.

1. S2F price model

Bitcoin is like a drunk, and the S2F model is its way home, a phrase used to describe the relationship between the volatile Bitcoin price and the S2F price model. According to the S2F model, the current price of Bitcoin should be around $79,000.

S2F (Stock-to-Flow Model), a metric used to quantify the scarcity of bitcoin, is published by Plan B, a well-known crypto asset analyst at Twitter. Where Stock refers to the existing inventory and reserves, Flow refers to the annual production, and S2F overall represents "the time needed to produce the number of assets circulating in the market".

Therefore, the S2F of Bitcoin can be easily calculated. According to the current mining speed of bitcoin, that is, the annual mining volume is about 6.25*6*24*365= 328,500, the total number of bitcoins that have been mined is 18.83 million, of which 1.7 million are lost (not moved since 2010, including Satoshi Nakamoto bitcoins), then the number of bitcoins in circulation is 17.13 million. So bitcoin S2F is about 1713/33=52.

2. Arh999 fixed investment index

Arh999 investment index is created by the original Weibo user AHR999, which is mainly used to assist Bitcoin investment users to make investment decisions. The characteristic of this index is that it clearly delineates the "bottom line" and "fixed line" for investors. When the price of bitcoin is lower than the fixed line, it means that the fixed line can be opened at this time. When the price of bitcoin is lower than the bottom line, it means that the bottom line can be caught at this time.

In fact, when we look back at the relationship between bitcoin price movements and the ARH999 index, the indicator has always been able to point us in the right direction at the right time. Just take the Bitcoin bottoming correction process in May as an example. When Bitcoin hit $28,000, it hit the ARH999 fixed line. In addition, when the price of bitcoin falls below ARH999 and exceeds the bottom line, it means that the bottom fishing action can be carried out at this time.

3. The Altseason index

According to Blockchain Center's definition of the fake quarter index, the crypto market is in a fake quarter if 75% of the top 50 tokens by market capitalization outperform Bitcoin for 90 consecutive days.

Reviewed the development of digital assets, the last bull market cycle market has experienced two fake season, the first time in June 2017 to July, the second time happened in early 2018, each hold only lasted about a month or quarter cycle shorter time, without exception, after every season shanzhai appears, encryption will be accompanied by market depth correction, For example, after the shanzhai season in early 2018, the crypto market began a 2-year bear market, which was followed by the Shanzhai season in April 2021, "519" followed, and has since experienced a month-line level correction.

Therefore, detecting a moment when the market is in the midst of a counterfeit currency outbreak is likely to mean that prices have risen to the top of the parabola, where there may well be a great opportunity for arbitrage.

4. Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1000 BTC

It is generally believed that when the number of bitcoins in a bitcoin address is greater than 1000, the address is considered to be a Whale address. Changes in the total number of such addresses are likely to have a huge impact on the crypto market. When the total number of such addresses decreases, it means that the crypto market is likely to enter a correction phase, and vice versa, it means that the crypto market will enter a period of growth.

Take the crypto bull market since 2020, where the number of whale addresses surged from 2,100 in May 2020 to 2,400 in February 2021, before starting to fall back and the crypto market saw its most brutal "519" rally in May. It can be seen that the number of whale addresses is closely related to the crypto market trend.