It is reported that on November 10, 2021, BTC hit a record high of over US $68600Data encryption quartz sandstoneOn the same day, ETH reached the maximum price of 4864.11 US dollarsData encryption quartz sandstoneData shows.

In terms of market value, the peak price of these large digital currencies may lead investors to believe that the sales market is still experiencing a bull market. However, a careful examination of the data of active addresses shows that the bear market is likely to originate in the 21st year, and the gap between BTC and ETH is several months at the highest time in history.

Analyzing the address is a good way to test the activities in the ecosystem and the application of the ecosystem. For example, according to the data information of Glassnode, during the bull market period in 2017, there were more than 100 thousand active BTC addresses. However, Glassnode data shows that with the bull market ending in 2018, the number of active BTC addresses has decreased by nearly 50% to about 500000.

During the period from 2018 to 2021, the active BTC addresses are slowly increasing. According to the data information of Glassnode, from January to May 2021, the active address of BTC will struggle to be around 1.2 million yuan, and will increase twice in five months, reaching more than 1.3 million yuan.

However, in June 2021, there will be about 500000 active BTC addresses, which should be the beginning of the bear market. Since then, because BTC has reached a new record in November 2021, the BTC address of theme activities has slightly increased. However, even if the BTC price reaches the peak, the active address still struggles at about 1 million yuan.

According to the data information of Glassnode, in all 2022 years, the active BTC address will remain within 1 million. In 2022, a new BTC address will remain relatively stable, with a price of about 400000. In the past five years, a new BTC address has been struggling at about 400000 yuan. However, Glasssnode data shows that at the beginning of 2021, a new BTC address will reach a slight peak, exceeding 600000.

Therefore, although the price of Bitcoin reached a new high in November 2021, the stock fundamentals show that the bear market will be formed a few months ago.

The active ETH address follows a story similar to BTC - peak during the bull market, and decline and stagnation in the bear market.

It is worth noting that the most obvious surge of ETH active address in 2022 will occur during the surrender period of this market, such as the collapse of Terra Luna and the collapse of FTX and Alameda Research. This may represent some things, such as speculative investors' buying and falling or new investors' panic selling, or even just interacting with the ecosystem.

In the past five years, a new Ethereum address, such as BTC, has basically remained within 200000 yuan, and this specification has only been improved twice - one in early 2018, and the other in May 2021.