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Bitcoin touches $30K as BTC bulls well-positioned for weekly $3.2B options expiry
- Marcel Pechman
- 2023-04-27
- 3097
- Market
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Summary:A weaker U.S. financial system has raised BTC bulls’ odds of profiting $780 million on April 28 options expiry.
On April 26th, the price of Bitcoin increased by $29800, a total increase of 9.6% within 24 hours, reaching $30024 in Bitstamp Yugan County. Some current affairs commentators believe that the 50% drop in shares of First Republic Financial Institutions (FRB) on April 25th was a metal catalyst for Bitcoin's surge.
Bitcoin benefits from the banking crisis
Although there have been positive and proactive changes, its price has still dropped by 22.5% in 12 months, which also explains why the duo is far from optimistic
The crash of FRB occurred after the financial institution's earnings report, which showed that customers' savings decreased by 40.8% in the quarter due to customers withdrawing from assets. It is worth noting that this bank received $30 billion in capital inflows in March, but capital outflows exceeded $100 billion in the first quarter.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve of the United States has stated its intention to raise interest rates above 5%. By increasing the cost of funds, the central bank is likely to successfully resist inflation, but the unexpected consequences are economic weakness and bearish demand in the market for risky assets, including Bitcoin.
Some investment analysts attribute the rejection of the $31000 frictional resistance to the harsh digital currency regulatory environment, especially in the United States, which has become increasingly prominent after Coinbase filed a lawsuit in court, driving the Securities and Exchange Commission to respond to market rules.
More specifically, the trading center requires the US Securities and Exchange Commission to respond to how it classifies tokens as securities.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin rose by 27% between March 26th and April 26th, which is what the bull market needs to succeed after the expiration of the $3.2 billion monthly summary option in April.
Bitcoin Options: 94% of the Bears' chips are less than $28000
On April 28, the announced interest rate for option expiration was $3.2 billion, but actually the data would be lower, because the estimated market price of empty orders was less than $28000. Bitcoin rose 9.6% from April 25 to April 26, which caught trader off guard.
The subscription to put ratio of 1.19 reflects the instability between the $1.7 billion non mandatory liquidated damages and the $1.5 billion interest on put (put) options.
However, if the price of Bitcoin remains around $29500 on April 28th at 8:00 am UTC, then only $54 million of these put (put) options can be used. The reason for this difference is that if Bitcoin is sold beyond this level after expiration, the right to sell Bitcoin for $28000 or $29000 is meaningless.
The Bulls' goal is to make $30000 to ensure a profit of $780 million
The following are the four most likely phenomena based on current market prices. On April 28th, the total number of option contracts used for both bullish and bearish tools varied depending on the expiration price. The instability that benefits each party forms the fundamental theoretical profit:
- Between $27000 and $28000:14300 subscriptions, 8700 bearish. The net conclusion is beneficial for bullish (bull market) specialized tools by $150 million.
- Between $28000 and $29000:19000 subscriptions, 3200 bearish. The Bulls raised their strengths to $445 million.
- Between $29000 and $30000:21700 purchases, 1900 bearish. The Bulls raised their strengths to $575 million.
- Between $30000 and $31000:26500 subscriptions, while 600 bearish. The net conclusion is beneficial for bullish (bull market) special tools by $780 million.
This may roughly take into account the call option commonly used in call betting and the put option commonly used only in neutral to put trading. Nevertheless, this overly simplistic approach overlooks more complex investment advice.
For example, trader could have sold call option and efficiently obtained Bitcoin's passive openness at a certain price. Unfortunately, there is no simplest way to mitigate this impact.
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BTC undertakes a lot of settlement over financial leverage
If Bitcoin's duo cannot increase frictional resistance by $30000, he may be very satisfied with a profit of $575 million. In addition, short orders require a 6.5% decrease in selling price at $29800 to reduce the damage to $150 million. However, recently, financial leverage bets on price declines using stock index futures contracts have resulted in a forced settlement of $166 million, leaving a lower asking price for short orders.
Fully considering the bullish trend of public offerings by financial institutions in the First Republic, Bitcoin's duo was in a beneficial position after the expiration of the $3.2 billion BTC monthly summary option in April.
Most likely, this profit will be mainly used to further strengthen the support point of $28000, and the price of BTC is currently much higher than $29000, so the expected results are particularly worrying.
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