Powell's wonderful speech and contraction of ISM PMI

I hope to reduce the scope, rethink the panorama of macroeconomic policies, and analyze some new data released this week, which will also seriously harm the market trend for many months.

After Jerome Powell gave a speech at the Brookings Institution, it was very clear that the sales market had been in full swing to promote the narrative and supporting point scenarios of all possibilities of the Federal Reserve meeting. Excessive hedging transactions, short order extrusion, option market dynamics and mandatory purchase. This is far beyond our theoretical knowledge, and it is impossible to accurately explain why the market will rise and fall sharply in all the data points given by Powell. However, this kind of events and the market trend have basically been the sign of unhealthy bear market and aggravating fluctuations. Although Powell released more opinions, in fact, there was nothing new, because the market felt that his speech was more "dove like", and he made comments closely around the anxiety of excessive interest rate rise. However, this is another round of bear market rebound that has been formed by the important index value. It seems that we are close to another rebound.

The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) data shows that the trend of economic contraction is also worrying, and it is hopeful that it will continue. The data released today showed that it was 49.0 lower than the market forecast of 49.7. New orders have been reduced, inventory backlog information has been reduced and prices have been reduced. In terms of the survey report on all measures, this is a sign that the requirements are softening, the standards are deteriorating and the economy is moving into a more prudent area. The ISM PMI data is highly related to the PMI data of New York, which is less harmful. The PMI data of New York has just released contraction bottoms similar to those in 2000, 2008 and 2020. This is also a sign of economic decline in the processing and manufacturing industry

What does the contraction of economic development mean to the financial system? When the ISM PMI is less than 50 or even less than 40, it is generally a bad news. We may be in the early stage of more contraction development trend: market collapse.

The practical key to the connection between Bitcoin and the macro-economy is: is the dissipation of leverage and surrender of the industry enough to curb the potential probability impact of the collapse of the bear market in the stock market? If the stock market follows the similar downward path of the bear market in the past, will Bitcoin almost form a bottom?

We haven't seen the real outbreak of stock market shocks, which has always determined Bitcoin. Bitcoin will follow the traditional stock market, which is a key part of our article this year.

The specific operation scale of long-term liabilities was, and is still, the core of the problem.

In addition, what does this mean for asset valuation?

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