David Marcus, founder of Lightspark, a Bitcoin (BTC) payment company, expressed disappointment at the efficient recovery of the crypto financial market because she predicted that the bear market cycle of the stock market could last until 2024. In an online article on December 30, Marcus wrote:

“We should not withdraw from this "encryption winter" in 2023, and it is very likely that we will not withdraw in 2024. "

He added that the crypto sales market must last for "two years" to solve the problem of "misuse of illegal game players" and develop an appropriate regulatory plan. In addition, Marcus indicated that it would take several years for investors to rebuild their trust. Because of a series of high-profile rapid bankruptcy events, investors' trust was seriously shaken.

In 2022, the bankrupt encryption company includes three arrows capital (3AC), the borrower Voyager Digital and Celsius Network, and its recent FTX, followed by the borrower BlockFi. The bankruptcy of such companies seriously affected millions of customers, who lost at least $10 billion in total.

Marcus called the encryption company's "house of cards type efficient crash" a repeat of "the ugly greed of Wall Street in the early years of the United States". In particular, Marcus emphasized that the downfall of FTX had brought "very unnecessary dramatization" to an embarrassing year.

But Marcus added cheerfully:

"... Finally, I firmly believe that, in the long run, this (long crypto stock market bear market) will prove that it is reasonable and legal for participants to reset."

Marcus' prediction and analysis of the continuous crypto winter show that Bitcoin is unlikely to have a big bull market in the next decline period, which is expected to occur in 2024. Historically, BTC has been in a bull market in 2012, 2016 and 2020.

Whether the encryption sales market is repaired before 2024 or not, Marcus shows that "time of greed" also gives way to "real world applications". He emphasized:

"The time to create tokens for no reason and earn millions of dollars is over. The song has been paused."

Marcus wrote that the encryption sales market has returned to the normalization of creating "real use value and dealing with practical problems". Marcus predicted that this could lead to the improvement of independent innovation in 2023, especially in the aspects of payment, securitization, decentralized finance (DeFi), zero expertise (ZK) application (such as the confirmation of reserves) and the first level of expansion solutions. He added that in 2023, he might again care about Bitcoin Internet.

In addition, Marcus predicted that in 2023, Bitcoin Lightning Network will become "the most effective open, interoperable, cheap and instant payment protocol in the world". However, Marcus warned that this prediction analysis may be self managed. With the strong support of his company Lightspark in 16z encryption and Paradigm, he focused on expanding the effect of Bitcoin according to the lightning network.

Analysis of broader market demand in 2023

Marcus predicted that the constant debate on the right to freedom of expression caused by Elon Musk's recycling of tweets would be promoted in 2023. Marcus wrote that different people will continue to fight for the definition of the right to freedom of expression and argue about what should or should not be alleviated.

Referring to broader economic development, Marcus indicated that the annual interest rate would rise again in the first half of 2023. As a result, he wrote, borrowing will become more and more expensive, and companies with no clear profit method will continue to make efforts to raise funds.

Marcus warned that rising interest rates would "curb" inflation, but the risk of "all-round decline" would be high. In addition, Marcus indicated that the high-tech layoff in 2023 will continue as the company explores a more streamlined and effective operation model.

At the supervisory level, Marcus expects variability to continue next year. He emphasized:

"We should establish and strictly supervise the digital currency/cryptocurrency, give specific guidance to social network companies, and set up barriers for AI (artificial intelligence technology) independent innovation. Sadly, I increasingly doubt whether we can reach an agreement on the appropriate balance of laws or control methods in this industry."

Marcus wrote that market leaders will have the obligation to "do what they think is right in the vacuum left by our deadlocked legislative system" as regulators consider various choices and delay laws.

Finally, Marcus indicated that technicality will continue to be at the forefront of dealing with "people's bigger problems". For example, Bitcoin mining, which is often accused of polluting the environment, verified the critics' mistakes according to the adjustment of power grid demand and the capture of methane gas. Marcus said that it has also promoted the selection of renewable resources.

2023 is undoubtedly a year for cryptocurrency builders

It is believed that the collapse of the company with advanced encryption product growth has seriously damaged the trust, stability and use value, bringing material content to the encryption critics in 2022. But Marcus wrote that destruction has already driven away speculators and created opportunities for reconstruction. He added:

"We will be more tenacious and able to get rid of this society better, but this requires enthusiasm and confidence. I believe that there is no doubt that the future will continue to be full of tests, but for some people who are confident to persist, these years are undoubtedly amazing feelings and achievements."